National Chains and Trends in Retail Productivity Dispersion
CES Working Paper CES-WP-25-64, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, 2025
Working Paper BLS Working Paper Previous Version
Abstract
Productivity dispersion within an industry is an important characteristic of the business environment, potentially reflecting factors such as market structure, production technologies, and reallocation frictions. The retail trade sector saw significant changes between 1987 and 2017, and dispersion statistics can help characterize how it evolved over this period. In this paper, we shed light on this transformation by developing public-use Dispersion Statistics on Productivity (DiSP) data for the retail sector for 1987 through 2017. We find that from 1987 through 2017, dispersion increased between retail stores at the bottom and middle of the productivity distribution. However, when we weight stores by employment dispersion, the middle of the distribution is lower initially and decreases over time. These patterns are consistent with a retail landscape featuring more and more activity taking place in chain stores with similar productivity. Firm-based dispersion measures exhibit a similar pattern. Further investigation reveals that there is substantial heterogeneity in dispersion levels across industries.
Also released as BLS Working Paper 570 (September 30, 2025). This paper previously circulated as "Productivity Dispersion and Structural Change in Retail Trade" (CES Working Paper 23-60, December 2023). The revised CES Working Paper 23-60R keeps that earlier title but is a separate paper on retail productivity growth, listed separately.
Cite
@techreport{smith2025national,
title = {National Chains and Trends in Retail Productivity Dispersion},
author = {Smith, Dominic A. and Blackwood, G. Jacob and Giandrea, Michael D. and Grim, Cheryl and Stewart, Jay and Wolf, Zoltan},
institution = {Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau},
type = {CES Working Paper},
number = {CES-WP-25-64},
year = {2025},
url = {https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2025/CES-WP-25-64.pdf},
}